Education

Higher education presents a different and mixed story. The elite American universities, both private and public, are the envy of the world. In a 2014 survey conducted by US News, American institutions of higher education dominated, with sixteen of the top twenty universities worldwide found in the United States; 134 American institutions were among the 500 top universities worldwide.

Altogether, there are nearly 4,000 degree-granting colleges and universities in the United States. The top 100 private schools enroll only about 500,000 students; the remaining 10.5 million students attend the other state-supported and private institutions. Included among them are hundreds of weaker institutions: those relying heavily on tuition, having little endowment, and increasingly dependent on a diminishing supply of both US and international students.

Many such institutions are hanging on by a thread, admitting 80, 90 or even 100 percent of the students who apply. In a 2022 study, the American Enterprise Institute found that in 355 colleges accepted between 80-90 percent of its applicants; 303 colleges accepted 90-99 percent; and 226 colleges accepted 100 percent of its applicants. These are the bottom-tier schools that rarely crack the top 200 in the US News rankings. The Pew Research Center found that 57.4 percent of colleges admitted at least 70 percent of its applicants in 2023; just 0.4 percent of schools (the most elite schools) accepted less than 10 percent of its applicants. The fate of these schools is compounded by the harsh reality of a declining American student population. In the 2011 academic year, 24.8 million undergraduates were enrolled in American colleges and universities; in 2023, enrollment had dropped to 20.3 million. Between 2026 and 2031, the number of high school graduates is expected to drop by 9 percent, translating into a loss of 280,000 American students enrolled in four-year colleges. In addition there have been cuts in state funding, the drying up of private support, and increased competition from other schools.

Many more schools are predicted to fold or merge. A headline in the April 26, 2024, Washington Post declared that “Colleges Are Now Closing at a Pace of One a Week.” In 2023, the rate of college closings was a little more than two a week, according to the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association. The educational consulting firm EAB predicted that by 2030 some “449 colleges are expected to see a 25 percent decline in enrollment and 182 colleges are expected to see a 50 percent decline.” Schools received federal emergency relief funds during the pandemic years, but those funds—a lifeline for many institutions--have mostly dried up. In addition, student enrollment has not rebounded in all sectors, and many institutions face significant enrollment pressures.

Compounding these demographic and financial difficulties was a growing sense that college simply wasn’t worth the time and effort. In a recent Wall Street Journal poll, conducted with the independent research institute NORC of the University of Chicago, some 56 percent of Americans didn’t think college was “worth the cost”; that figure was up by 16 percent since the same question was asked ten years ago.

Seth Bodnar, president of the University of Montana, noted the skepticism among many on whether a college education was worth the time and money, and he was particularly worried about those who encourage young people to forgo high education. “Our competitors are certainly not advising their youth, ‘Don’t get an education.’ They’re playing a long game, and they’re playing to win.”

Indeed, the United States is the outlier among OECD countries when it comes to higher education goals and aspirations. On average, notes journalist Paul Tough, OECD countries “have increased their college-attainment rate among young adults by more than 20 percentage points since 2000, and eleven of those countries now have better-educated labor forces than we do.” It is not just Japan, South Korea and Britain, but also smaller countries like the Netherlands, Ireland, and Switzerland.

Sources: “Best Global Universities Rankings,” US News, October 2014, http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankings; George F. Will, “Colleges Hide the Truth About Tuition,” Washington Post, August 30, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/high-college-tuition-marketing-tool/; Preston Cooper, “After Decades of Competitive Admissions, Getting into College Has Finally Become Easier,” AEIdeas, September 11, 2024, https://www.aei.org/education/after-decades-of-competitive-admissions-getting-into-college-has-finally-become-easier/; Jon Marcus, “It’s Becoming Easier to Get Into Many Colleges,” Washington Post, November 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/11/18/college-acceptance-rates-easier-to-get-in/; Drew Desilver, “A Majority of US Colleges Admit Most Students Who Apply,” Pew Research Center, April 9, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/04/09/a-majority-of-u-s-colleges-admit-most-students-who-apply/; “Undergraduate Enrollment in US Universities, Statista, n.d., https://www.statista.com/statistics/235406/undergraduate-enrollment-in-us-universities/; Jeffrey J. Selingo, “Despite Strong Economy, Worrying Signs for Higher Education,” Washington Post, August 3, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2018/08/03/despite-strong-economy-worrying-financial-signs-for-higher-education/?noredirect=on; Preston Cooper, “After Decades of Competitive Admissions, Getting into College Has Finally Become Easier,” AEIdeas, September 11, 2024, https://www.aei.org/education/after-decades-of-competitive-admissions-getting-into-college-has-finally-become-easier/; Jon Marcus, “It’s Becoming Easier to Get Into Many Colleges,” Washington Post, November 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/11/18/college-acceptance-rates-easier-to-get-in/; Jon Marcus, “Colleges Are Now Closing at a Pace of One a Week. What Happens to the Students?” Washington Post, April 26, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/04/26/college-closures-student-impact/; EAB report cited in Olivia Sanchez, “Experts Predicted Dozens of Colleges Would Close in 2023—and They Were Right,” Hechinger Report, January 12, 2024, https://hechingerreport.org/experts-predicted-dozens-of-colleges-would-close-in-2023-and-they-were-right/; Josh Moody, “A Harbinger for 2023? Presentation College to Close,” Inside Higher Ed, January 18, 2023, https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2023/01/19/more-colleges-will-likely-face-closure-2023-experts-say; Douglas Belkin, “Americans Are Losing Faith in college education. WSJ-NORC Poll Finds,” Wall Street Journal, March 31, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-are-losing-faith-in-college-education-wsj-norc-poll-finds-3a836ce1.

In June 2023, the US Supreme Court ruled that Harvard College and the University of North Carolina had violated the equal protection clause of the US Constitution through their affirmative action admissions programs. For the six conservatives in the majority, Chief Justice Roberts wrote that the student “must be treated based on his or her experiences as an individual — not on the basis of race. Many universities have for too long done just the opposite. And in doing so, they have concluded, wrongly, that the touchstone of an individual’s identity is not challenges bested, skills built, or lessons learned but the color of their skin. Our constitutional history does not tolerate that choice.”

In a blistering dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, wrote, “The devastating impact of this decision cannot be overstated. The majority’s vision of race neutrality will entrench racial segregation in higher education because racial inequality will persist so long as it is ignored.”

The immediate partisan and ideological reactions were predictable. President Biden declared “I strongly—strongly disagree with the Court’s decision. . . I believe our colleges are stronger when they are racially diverse. Our nation is strong because . . . we are tapping into the full range of talent in this nation.” On the campaign trail, Donald Trump calling it “a great day for America.”

Now with Donald Trump in the White House, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs are also under attack at colleges and universities, with critics arguing that such programs lead to reverse discrimination, violate free speech, and are simply attempts promote affirmative action by another name. The University of Michigan, a leading voice in promoting DEI programs, has spent a quarter billion dollars over the past decade on such efforts, only to find students, faculty, administrators, and alumni, of all political stripes frustrated with the implementation, educational and societal ramifications, even the fundamental premises of diversity, equity, and inclusion.

Sources: Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf; “Remarks by President Biden on the Supreme Court’s Decision on Affirmative Action,” The White House, June 29, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/06/29/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-supreme-courts-decision-on-affirmative-action/; Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman, “The GOP Presidential Field Is Hailing the Dismantling of Affirmative Action,” New York Times, June 29, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/us/politics/affirmative-action-republican-reactions.html; Nicholas Confessore, “The University of Michigan Doubled Down on DEI. What Went Wrong?” New York Times, October 16, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/magazine/dei-university-michigan.html.